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Coastal Heroes vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
4/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Coastal Heroes55%
×Draw24%
Vihiga United FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Heroes
1.67
Vihiga United FC
0.92

Coastal Heroes creates 82% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

Coastal Heroes
1.55
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Coastal Heroes
1.04
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw
79%
Coastal Heroes or Vihiga United FC
76%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
45%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
30%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
81%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
50%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
23%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
60%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
23%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
73%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more
55%
level
24%
Vihiga United FC scores more
21%

Coastal Heroes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coastal Heroes vs Vihiga United FC

Vihiga United FC beat Coastal Heroes 4-3 in Super League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.