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Coastal Heroes vs Naivas — Super League 2018

Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Naivas
Naivas
1/12/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Coastal Heroes41%
×Draw28%
Naivas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Heroes
1.26
Naivas
1.06

Coastal Heroes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 90 away

creates per match

Coastal Heroes
1.55
Naivas
1.07

allows per match

Coastal Heroes
1.04
Naivas
0.97

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par
Naivas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Naivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw
69%
Coastal Heroes or Naivas
72%
Draw or Naivas
59%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
18%
Naivas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
72%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
36%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
13%
Naivas 1+ goals
65%
Naivas 2+ goals
29%
Naivas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
57%
Naivas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Naivas away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Naivas defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.26

Naivas attack 1.07 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more
41%
level
28%
Naivas scores more
31%

Coastal Heroes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Coastal Heroes 1–4 Naivas

Naivas beat Coastal Heroes 4-1 in Super League on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Serani Sports Ground in Mombasa.