Coast Stima 2–1 St Joseph FC: Result & Stats

Coast Stima

FT

2 – 1

St Joseph FC

4/8/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coast Stima50%

×Draw26%

St Joseph FC25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coast StimaExpected goals in this matchSt Joseph FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.00

Coast Stima

1.53

St Joseph FC

1.00

Coast Stima creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.81

creates per match

1.06

0.94

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Coast Stima

1.81

St Joseph FC

1.06

allows per match

Coast Stima

0.94

St Joseph FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par

St Joseph FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

St Joseph FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw

75%

Coast Stima or St Joseph FC

74%

Draw or St Joseph FC

50%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+

25%

St Joseph FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals

78%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

45%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

20%

St Joseph FC 1+ goals

63%

St Joseph FC 2+ goals

26%

St Joseph FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

67%

St Joseph FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

St Joseph FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.81 + St Joseph FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

St Joseph FC attack 1.06 + Coast Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coast Stima scores more

50%

level

26%

St Joseph FC scores more

25%

Coast Stima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff