Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coast Stima vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

Coast Stima
Coast Stima
FT
2 – 2
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
3/30/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coast Stima58%
×Draw23%
Kangemi All Stars19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coast Stima
1.82
Kangemi All Stars
0.94

Coast Stima creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Coast Stima
1.93
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

Coast Stima
0.87
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw
81%
Coast Stima or Kangemi All Stars
77%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
42%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+
33%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals
84%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
54%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
27%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
61%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
24%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)
75%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.93 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Coast Stima defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coast Stima scores more
58%
level
23%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
19%

Coast Stima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coast Stima vs Kangemi All Stars

Coast Stima and Kangemi All Stars drew 2-2 in Super League on March 30, 2018.