Coast Stima 1–1 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Coast Stima

FT

1 – 1

Bidco United

9/9/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Coast Stima39%

×Draw27%

Bidco United33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coast StimaExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Coast Stima

1.28

Bidco United

1.16

Coast Stima creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.81

creates per match

1.38

0.94

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Coast Stima

1.81

Bidco United

1.38

allows per match

Coast Stima

0.94

Bidco United

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw

67%

Coast Stima or Bidco United

73%

Draw or Bidco United

61%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+

17%

Bidco United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals

72%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

37%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

14%

Bidco United 1+ goals

69%

Bidco United 2+ goals

32%

Bidco United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

54%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Bidco United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.81 + Bidco United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bidco United attack 1.38 + Coast Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Coast Stima scores more

39%

level

27%

Bidco United scores more

33%

Coast Stima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff