Coast Stima 2–2 Administration Police Fc

Coast Stima

FT

2 – 2

Administration Police Fc

9/22/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coast Stima58%

×Draw23%

Administration Police Fc19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coast StimaExpected goals in this matchAdministration Police Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.94

Coast Stima

1.80

Administration Police Fc

0.94

Coast Stima creates 91% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.93

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Coast Stima

1.93

Administration Police Fc

1.00

allows per match

Coast Stima

0.87

Administration Police Fc

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Administration Police Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw

81%

Coast Stima or Administration Police Fc

77%

Draw or Administration Police Fc

42%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+

33%

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals

83%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

54%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

27%

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals

61%

Administration Police Fc 2+ goals

24%

Administration Police Fc 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

75%

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.93 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Coast Stima defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coast Stima scores more

58%

level

23%

Administration Police Fc scores more

19%

Coast Stima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff