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Coagh United vs Ballymacash Rangers — League #561 2026

Coagh United
Coagh United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ballymacash Rangers
Ballymacash Rangers
3/14/2026League #561League #561

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coagh United29%
×Draw27%
Ballymacash Rangers45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coagh United
1.08
Ballymacash Rangers
1.42

Ballymacash Rangers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Coagh United
0.67
Ballymacash Rangers
1.17

allows per match

Coagh United
1.67
Ballymacash Rangers
1.50

finishing

Coagh United+0.00on par
Ballymacash Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coagh United ↓

Ballymacash Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Coagh United or draw
55%
Coagh United or Ballymacash Rangers
73%
Draw or Ballymacash Rangers
71%

Winning margin

Coagh United wins by 2+
11%
Ballymacash Rangers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Coagh United 1+ goals
66%
Coagh United 2+ goals
29%
Coagh United 3+ goals
10%
Ballymacash Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Ballymacash Rangers 2+ goals
41%
Ballymacash Rangers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Coagh United (draw refunded)
39%
Ballymacash Rangers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coagh United at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Ballymacash Rangers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coagh United attack 0.67 + Ballymacash Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ballymacash Rangers attack 1.17 + Coagh United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coagh United scores more
29%
level
27%
Ballymacash Rangers scores more
45%

Ballymacash Rangers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ballymacash Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Coagh United 0–1 Ballymacash Rangers

Ballymacash Rangers beat Coagh United 1-0 in League #561 on March 14, 2026.