Coachella vs Ventura County Fusion — USL League Two 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Coachella6%
Ventura County Fusion85%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ventura County Fusion creates 255% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over89
- Under11
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Coachella ↓
Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Coachella at home — creates 1.18, concedes 5.91 · 11 matches
Ventura County Fusion away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Coachella attack 1.18 + Ventura County Fusion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18
Ventura County Fusion attack 2.47 + Coachella defence 5.91 → ÷2 → 4.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 85%?"
Ventura County Fusion at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 85% does not mean "Ventura County Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Coachella host Ventura County Fusion on Wednesday, 12 June 2024 at 02:00. The match is part of the USL League Two 2026/2027 season.
Coachella 3 – 5 Ventura County Fusion
Ventura County Fusion beat Coachella 5-3 in USL League Two on June 12, 2024.
The match was played at Coachella Valley High School Stadium in Thermal, California.