CO Medenine 0–0 Stade Tunisien: Result & Stats

CO Medenine

FT

0 – 0

Stade Tunisien

12/5/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade de Medenine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CO Medenine32%

×Draw34%

Stade Tunisien34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CO MedenineExpected goals in this matchStade Tunisien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

0.85

CO Medenine

0.82

Stade Tunisien

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

1.13

0.57

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

CO Medenine

1.14

Stade Tunisien

1.13

allows per match

CO Medenine

0.57

Stade Tunisien

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CO Medenine+0.00on par

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CO Medenine ↓

Stade Tunisien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

CO Medenine or draw

66%

CO Medenine or Stade Tunisien

66%

Draw or Stade Tunisien

68%

Winning margin

CO Medenine wins by 2+

10%

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CO Medenine 1+ goals

56%

CO Medenine 2+ goals

20%

CO Medenine 3+ goals

5%

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

57%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

21%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CO Medenine (draw refunded)

49%

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CO Medenine at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CO Medenine attack 1.14 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Stade Tunisien attack 1.13 + CO Medenine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

CO Medenine scores more

32%

level

34%

Stade Tunisien scores more

34%

Stade Tunisien at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff