CO Medenine 1–2 SS Sfaxien: Result & Stats

CO Medenine

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

SS Sfaxien

3/13/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de Medenine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CO Medenine57%

×Draw28%

SS Sfaxien16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CO MedenineExpected goals in this matchSS Sfaxien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.58

CO Medenine

1.39

SS Sfaxien

0.58

CO Medenine creates 140% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

1.14

creates per match

0.59

0.57

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

CO Medenine

1.14

SS Sfaxien

0.59

allows per match

CO Medenine

0.57

SS Sfaxien

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CO Medenine+0.00on par

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CO Medenine ↓

SS Sfaxien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CO Medenine or draw

84%

CO Medenine or SS Sfaxien

72%

Draw or SS Sfaxien

43%

Winning margin

CO Medenine wins by 2+

28%

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CO Medenine 1+ goals

75%

CO Medenine 2+ goals

40%

CO Medenine 3+ goals

16%

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals

44%

SS Sfaxien 2+ goals

12%

SS Sfaxien 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

CO Medenine (draw refunded)

79%

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CO Medenine at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CO Medenine attack 1.14 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + CO Medenine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CO Medenine scores more

57%

level

28%

SS Sfaxien scores more

16%

CO Medenine at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CO Medenine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff