CO Medenine 2–1 Sbikha: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

CO Medenine

FT

2 – 1

Sbikha

3/28/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade de Medenine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CO Medenine54%

×Draw27%

Sbikha20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CO MedenineExpected goals in this matchSbikha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.78

CO Medenine

1.47

Sbikha

0.78

CO Medenine creates 88% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

1.00

0.57

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

CO Medenine

1.14

Sbikha

1.00

allows per match

CO Medenine

0.57

Sbikha

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CO Medenine+0.00on par

Sbikha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CO Medenine ↓

Sbikha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CO Medenine or draw

80%

CO Medenine or Sbikha

73%

Draw or Sbikha

46%

Winning margin

CO Medenine wins by 2+

27%

Sbikha wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CO Medenine 1+ goals

77%

CO Medenine 2+ goals

43%

CO Medenine 3+ goals

18%

Sbikha 1+ goals

54%

Sbikha 2+ goals

18%

Sbikha 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CO Medenine (draw refunded)

73%

Sbikha (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CO Medenine at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Sbikha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CO Medenine attack 1.14 + Sbikha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sbikha attack 1.00 + CO Medenine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CO Medenine scores more

54%

level

27%

Sbikha scores more

20%

CO Medenine at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CO Medenine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff