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CO Medenine vs Moknine — Ligue 2 2020

CO Medenine
CO Medenine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moknine
Moknine
H. Mannai 27'
6/13/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade de Medenine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CO Medenine52%
×Draw28%
Moknine20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CO Medenine
1.35
Moknine
0.73

CO Medenine creates 85% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 49 away

creates per match

CO Medenine
1.14
Moknine
0.90

allows per match

CO Medenine
0.57
Moknine
1.57

finishing

CO Medenine+0.00on par
Moknine+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CO Medenine ↓

Moknine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CO Medenine or draw
80%
CO Medenine or Moknine
72%
Draw or Moknine
48%

Winning margin

CO Medenine wins by 2+
25%
Moknine wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CO Medenine 1+ goals
74%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
39%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
15%
Moknine 1+ goals
52%
Moknine 2+ goals
17%
Moknine 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CO Medenine (draw refunded)
72%
Moknine (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CO Medenine at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Moknine away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CO Medenine attack 1.14 + Moknine defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Moknine attack 0.90 + CO Medenine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CO Medenine scores more
52%
level
28%
Moknine scores more
20%

CO Medenine at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CO Medenine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
H. Mannai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CO Medenine 1–0 Moknine

CO Medenine beat Moknine 1-0 in Ligue 2 on June 13, 2024.

Goals: H. Mannai (27').

The match was played at Stade de Medenine in Madanīyīn.