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CO Medenine vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

CO Medenine
CO Medenine
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
12/21/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade de Medenine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CO Medenine54%
×Draw28%
EO Sidi Bouzid18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CO Medenine
1.40
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.68

CO Medenine creates 106% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 49 away

creates per match

CO Medenine
1.14
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

CO Medenine
0.57
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

CO Medenine+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CO Medenine ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CO Medenine or draw
82%
CO Medenine or EO Sidi Bouzid
72%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
46%

Winning margin

CO Medenine wins by 2+
27%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CO Medenine 1+ goals
75%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
41%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
17%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
49%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
15%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CO Medenine (draw refunded)
75%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CO Medenine at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CO Medenine attack 1.14 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + CO Medenine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CO Medenine scores more
54%
level
28%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
18%

CO Medenine at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CO Medenine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CO Medenine vs EO Sidi Bouzid

EO Sidi Bouzid beat CO Medenine 2-1 in Ligue 2 on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Medenine in Madanīyīn.