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CO Medenine vs CS Hammam-Lif — Ligue 2 2020

CO Medenine
CO Medenine
FT
2 – 0
CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
2/6/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de Medenine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CO Medenine43%
×Draw32%
CS Hammam-Lif25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CO Medenine
1.09
CS Hammam-Lif
0.75

CO Medenine creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

creates per match

CO Medenine
1.14
CS Hammam-Lif
0.93

allows per match

CO Medenine
0.57
CS Hammam-Lif
1.05

finishing

CO Medenine+0.00on par
CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CO Medenine ↓

CS Hammam-Lif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CO Medenine or draw
75%
CO Medenine or CS Hammam-Lif
68%
Draw or CS Hammam-Lif
57%

Winning margin

CO Medenine wins by 2+
18%
CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CO Medenine 1+ goals
66%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
30%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
10%
CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
53%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
17%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CO Medenine (draw refunded)
63%
CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CO Medenine at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

CS Hammam-Lif away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CO Medenine attack 1.14 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

CS Hammam-Lif attack 0.93 + CO Medenine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CO Medenine scores more
43%
level
32%
CS Hammam-Lif scores more
25%

CO Medenine at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CO Medenine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CO Medenine vs CS Hammam-Lif

CO Medenine beat CS Hammam-Lif 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Medenine in Madanīyīn.