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CNEPS Excellence vs Pikine — Ligue 1 2019

CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
FT
0 – 1
Pikine
Pikine
1/26/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CNEPS Excellence31%
×Draw34%
Pikine35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CNEPS Excellence
0.83
Pikine
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 88 away

creates per match

CNEPS Excellence
0.78
Pikine
0.75

allows per match

CNEPS Excellence
1.02
Pikine
0.89

finishing

CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par
Pikine+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CNEPS Excellence ↓

Pikine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

CNEPS Excellence or draw
65%
CNEPS Excellence or Pikine
66%
Draw or Pikine
69%

Winning margin

CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
10%
Pikine wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
56%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
20%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
5%
Pikine 1+ goals
59%
Pikine 2+ goals
22%
Pikine 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
47%
Pikine (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CNEPS Excellence at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

Pikine away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.78 + Pikine defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Pikine attack 0.75 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

CNEPS Excellence scores more
31%
level
34%
Pikine scores more
35%

Pikine at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CNEPS Excellence vs Pikine

Pikine beat CNEPS Excellence 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Lat Dior in Thiès.