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CNEPS Excellence vs La Linguère — Ligue 1 2019

CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
La Linguère
La Linguère
4/9/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Maniang Soumare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CNEPS Excellence34%
×Draw35%
La Linguère31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CNEPS Excellence
0.84
La Linguère
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 69 away

creates per match

CNEPS Excellence
0.78
La Linguère
0.58

allows per match

CNEPS Excellence
1.02
La Linguère
0.91

finishing

CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par
La Linguère+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CNEPS Excellence ↓

La Linguère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

CNEPS Excellence or draw
69%
CNEPS Excellence or La Linguère
65%
Draw or La Linguère
66%

Winning margin

CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
11%
La Linguère wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
57%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
21%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
5%
La Linguère 1+ goals
55%
La Linguère 2+ goals
19%
La Linguère 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
52%
La Linguère (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CNEPS Excellence at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

La Linguère away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.78 + La Linguère defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

La Linguère attack 0.58 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

CNEPS Excellence scores more
34%
level
35%
La Linguère scores more
31%

CNEPS Excellence at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "CNEPS Excellence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: CNEPS Excellence 0–1 La Linguère

La Linguère beat CNEPS Excellence 1-0 in Ligue 1 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Maniang Soumare in Thiès.