CNEPS Excellence 2–1 Jaraaf: Result & Stats

CNEPS Excellence

FT

2 – 1

Jaraaf

7/14/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Maniang Soumare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CNEPS Excellence26%

×Draw34%

Jaraaf40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CNEPS ExcellenceExpected goals in this matchJaraaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

0.98

CNEPS Excellence

0.73

Jaraaf

0.98

Jaraaf creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 89 away

0.78

creates per match

0.94

1.02

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

CNEPS Excellence

0.78

Jaraaf

0.94

allows per match

CNEPS Excellence

1.02

Jaraaf

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CNEPS Excellence ↓

Jaraaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

CNEPS Excellence or draw

60%

CNEPS Excellence or Jaraaf

66%

Draw or Jaraaf

74%

Winning margin

CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+

8%

Jaraaf wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals

52%

CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals

17%

CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals

4%

Jaraaf 1+ goals

62%

Jaraaf 2+ goals

26%

Jaraaf 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)

40%

Jaraaf (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CNEPS Excellence at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.78 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CNEPS Excellence scores more

26%

level

34%

Jaraaf scores more

40%

Jaraaf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff