Clydebank 1–3 Spartans: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Clydebank

1 – 3

Spartans

9/17/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundHolm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Clydebank71%

×Draw16%

Spartans13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClydebankExpected goals in this matchSpartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

1.10

Clydebank

2.74

Spartans

1.10

Clydebank creates 149% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

3.33

creates per match

1.43

0.78

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Clydebank

3.33

Spartans

1.43

allows per match

Clydebank

0.78

Spartans

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clydebank+0.00on par

Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clydebank ↓

Spartans →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Clydebank or draw

87%

Clydebank or Spartans

84%

Draw or Spartans

29%

Winning margin

Clydebank wins by 2+

50%

Spartans wins by 2+

Team goals

Clydebank 1+ goals

93%

Clydebank 2+ goals

75%

Clydebank 3+ goals

51%

Spartans 1+ goals

67%

Spartans 2+ goals

30%

Spartans 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Clydebank (draw refunded)

85%

Spartans (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Clydebank at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Clydebank attack 3.33 + Spartans defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.74

Spartans attack 1.43 + Clydebank defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Clydebank scores more

71%

level

16%

Spartans scores more

13%

Clydebank at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff