Clydebank 2–0 Buckie Thistle: Result & Stats

Clydebank

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buckie Thistle

N. Little 73' (pen), 68'

11/30/2024

FA Cup · 3rd RoundHolm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Clydebank63%

×Draw19%

Buckie Thistle18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClydebankExpected goals in this matchBuckie Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.21

Clydebank

2.38

Buckie Thistle

1.21

Clydebank creates 97% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

3.33

creates per match

1.64

0.78

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Clydebank

3.33

Buckie Thistle

1.64

allows per match

Clydebank

0.78

Buckie Thistle

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clydebank+0.00on par

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clydebank ↓

Buckie Thistle →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Clydebank or draw

82%

Clydebank or Buckie Thistle

81%

Draw or Buckie Thistle

37%

Winning margin

Clydebank wins by 2+

41%

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

Team goals

Clydebank 1+ goals

91%

Clydebank 2+ goals

68%

Clydebank 3+ goals

42%

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

70%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

34%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Clydebank (draw refunded)

78%

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Clydebank at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Clydebank attack 3.33 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.38

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Clydebank defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Clydebank scores more

63%

level

19%

Buckie Thistle scores more

18%

Clydebank at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

25'

36'

37'

60'

T. Daramola← L. McGonigle

62'

T. Daramola

63'

C. Mulcahy

68'

N. Little↳ L. Gallacher

70'

S. Pugh

70'

K. Samson← C. Mulcahy

70'

J. Peters← L. Harvey

72'

D. Wood

73'

C. Ramsay

73'

N. LittlePenalty

74'

S. Morrison← C. Ramsay

81'

M. Niven

86'

A. Hodge← J. Grant

86'

C. Truesdale← L. Gallacher

86'

L. Keir← K. Fraser

Clydebank

Buckie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: G. Moffat

60'▲T. Daramola←▼L. McGonigle

70'▲K. Samson←▼C. Mulcahy

86'▲A. Hodge←▼J. Grant

86'▲C. Truesdale←▼L. Gallacher

Clydebank substitutes

21Daramola17Samson2Hodge16Truesdale3Mackenzie18McLernan5Darroch1Ross

Manager: L. MacKinnon

70'▲J. Peters←▼L. Harvey

74'▲S. Morrison←▼C. Ramsay

86'▲L. Keir←▼K. Fraser

Buckie Thistle substitutes

9Peters4Morrison22Keir12Fitzgerald6Robertson2McCabe16Fyffe

FA Cup: Clydebank 2–0 Buckie Thistle

Clydebank beat Buckie Thistle 2-0 in FA Cup on November 30, 2024.

Goals: N. Little (68', 73' pen).

The match was played at Holm Park in Clydebank.

Clydebank vs Buckie Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Clydebank 2–0 Buckie Thistle