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Clydebank vs Bonnyton Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Clydebank
Clydebank
FT
4 – 1
Bonnyton Thistle
Bonnyton Thistle
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundHolm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Clydebank87%
×Draw9%
Bonnyton Thistle4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clydebank
3.50
Bonnyton Thistle
0.73

Clydebank creates 379% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Clydebank
3.33
Bonnyton Thistle
0.67

allows per match

Clydebank
0.78
Bonnyton Thistle
3.67

finishing

Clydebank+0.00on par
Bonnyton Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clydebank ↓

Bonnyton Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Clydebank or draw
96%
Clydebank or Bonnyton Thistle
91%
Draw or Bonnyton Thistle
13%

Winning margin

Clydebank wins by 2+
71%
Bonnyton Thistle wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Clydebank 1+ goals
97%
Clydebank 2+ goals
85%
Clydebank 3+ goals
66%
Bonnyton Thistle 1+ goals
52%
Bonnyton Thistle 2+ goals
17%
Bonnyton Thistle 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Clydebank (draw refunded)
95%
Bonnyton Thistle (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clydebank at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Bonnyton Thistle away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clydebank attack 3.33 + Bonnyton Thistle defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.50

Bonnyton Thistle attack 0.67 + Clydebank defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Clydebank scores more
87%
level
9%
Bonnyton Thistle scores more
4%

Clydebank at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Clydebank 4–1 Bonnyton Thistle

Clydebank beat Bonnyton Thistle 4-1 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Holm Park in Clydebank.