Clydebank 2–2 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats

Clydebank

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Annan Athletic

C. Mulcahy 94'

C. Black 68'

H. McKinlay 45'

I. Anderson 120+3'

R. McCartney 119'

M. Douglas 54'

O. Moxon 9'

1/22/2022

FA Cup · 4th RoundHolm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Clydebank68%

×Draw16%

Annan Athletic15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClydebankExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.27

Clydebank

2.79

Annan Athletic

1.27

Clydebank creates 120% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

3.33

creates per match

1.75

0.78

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Clydebank

3.33

Annan Athletic

1.75

allows per match

Clydebank

0.78

Annan Athletic

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clydebank+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clydebank ↓

Annan Athletic →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Clydebank or draw

85%

Clydebank or Annan Athletic

84%

Draw or Annan Athletic

32%

Winning margin

Clydebank wins by 2+

48%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Clydebank 1+ goals

94%

Clydebank 2+ goals

76%

Clydebank 3+ goals

52%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

72%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Clydebank (draw refunded)

82%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Clydebank at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Clydebank attack 3.33 + Annan Athletic defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.79

Annan Athletic attack 1.75 + Clydebank defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Clydebank scores more

68%

level

16%

Annan Athletic scores more

15%

Clydebank at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Clydebank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

O. Moxon

45'

H. McKinlay↳ J. Darroch

54'

M. Douglas↳ R. Steele

63'

A. Hodge

67'

F. Johnstone← J. Slattery

68'

C. Black↳ H. McKinlay

78'

M. McLean← M. Niven

81'

L. McGonigle← H. McKinlay

88'

R. McCartney← T. Goss

90'

L. Hunter

94'

C. Mulcahy

101'

I. Anderson← T. Wallace

102'

F. Johnstone

107'

D. Docherty← C. Clark

108'

R. McPherson← C. Mulcahy

119'

R. McCartney

120+1'

R. McCartney

120+4'

I. Anderson

120+3'

I. Anderson↳ C. Johnston

Clydebank

Annan

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽A

▼

McKinlay

⚽

▼

Mulcahy

Little

Manager: G. Moffat

67'▲F. Johnstone←▼J. Slattery

78'▲M. McLean←▼M. Niven

81'▲L. McGonigle←▼H. McKinlay

108'▲R. McPherson←▼C. Mulcahy

Clydebank substitutes

6Johnstone21McLean11McGonigle27McPherson15McHugh20Stevenson23Harris14Lynass19Holmes

Manager: P. Murphy

88'▲R. McCartney←▼T. Goss

101'▲I. Anderson←▼T. Wallace

107'▲D. Docherty←▼C. Clark

Annan Athletic substitutes

19McCartney16Anderson15Docherty18Barnes12Adamson14Fleming17Lowdon

Match Recap: Clydebank vs Annan Athletic

Clydebank and Annan Athletic drew 2-2 in FA Cup on January 22, 2022.

Goals: O. Moxon (9'), H. McKinlay (45'), M. Douglas (54'), C. Black (68'), C. Mulcahy (94'), R. McCartney (119'), I. Anderson (120+3').

The match was played at Holm Park in Clydebank.

Clydebank vs Annan Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Clydebank vs Annan Athletic