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Clyde vs Jeanfield Swifts — FA Cup 2019

Clyde
Clyde
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jeanfield Swifts
Jeanfield Swifts
11/24/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Clyde17%
×Draw18%
Jeanfield Swifts64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clyde
1.21
Jeanfield Swifts
2.46

Jeanfield Swifts creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Clyde
1.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.71

allows per match

Clyde
2.20
Jeanfield Swifts
1.43

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par
Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Clyde or draw
36%
Clyde or Jeanfield Swifts
82%
Draw or Jeanfield Swifts
83%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+
7%
Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals
70%
Clyde 2+ goals
34%
Clyde 3+ goals
12%
Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals
91%
Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals
70%
Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)
21%
Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.00 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Clyde defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Clyde scores more
17%
level
18%
Jeanfield Swifts scores more
64%

Jeanfield Swifts at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Clyde 2–0 Jeanfield Swifts

Clyde beat Jeanfield Swifts 2-0 in FA Cup on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at ZLX Stadium in Hamilton.