Clyde 3–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic: Result & Stats

Clyde

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

3/22/2025

League Two · Round 30New Douglas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Clyde50%

×Draw25%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClydeExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.01

Clyde

1.57

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.01

Clyde creates 55% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

1.57

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Clyde

1.57

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.93

allows per match

Clyde

1.08

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Clyde or draw

76%

Clyde or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

75%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

50%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+

26%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals

79%

Clyde 2+ goals

46%

Clyde 3+ goals

21%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

64%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

27%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)

67%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 72 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.57 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 0.93 + Clyde defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clyde scores more

50%

level

25%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

24%

Clyde at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clyde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff