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Clyde vs Aberdeen — FA Cup 2019

Clyde
Clyde
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
1/19/2024FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Clyde23%
×Draw24%
Aberdeen53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clyde
1.00
Aberdeen
1.67

Aberdeen creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Clyde
1.00
Aberdeen
1.13

allows per match

Clyde
2.20
Aberdeen
1.00

finishing

Clyde+0.00on par
Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clyde ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Clyde or draw
47%
Clyde or Aberdeen
76%
Draw or Aberdeen
77%

Winning margin

Clyde wins by 2+
8%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Clyde 1+ goals
63%
Clyde 2+ goals
26%
Clyde 3+ goals
8%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
81%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
50%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Clyde (draw refunded)
30%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clyde at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clyde attack 1.00 + Aberdeen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Aberdeen attack 1.13 + Clyde defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Clyde scores more
23%
level
24%
Aberdeen scores more
53%

Aberdeen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Clyde 0–2 Aberdeen

Aberdeen beat Clyde 2-0 in FA Cup on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at ZLX Stadium in Hamilton.