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Clube Vital U20 vs Osasco Audax U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Clube Vital U20
Clube Vital U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Osasco Audax U20
Osasco Audax U20
L. Amorim 52'
M. Cruz 76'
M. Lima 23'
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Marcos Eduardo Camargo Truvilho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Clube Vital U2036%
×Draw24%
Osasco Audax U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clube Vital U20
1.47
Osasco Audax U20
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Clube Vital U20
1.00
Osasco Audax U20
1.11

allows per match

Clube Vital U20
2.00
Osasco Audax U20
1.94

finishing

Clube Vital U20+0.00on par
Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clube Vital U20 ↓

Osasco Audax U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Clube Vital U20 or draw
60%
Clube Vital U20 or Osasco Audax U20
76%
Draw or Osasco Audax U20
64%

Winning margin

Clube Vital U20 wins by 2+
17%
Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Clube Vital U20 1+ goals
77%
Clube Vital U20 2+ goals
43%
Clube Vital U20 3+ goals
18%
Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals
79%
Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals
46%
Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Clube Vital U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clube Vital U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Osasco Audax U20 away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clube Vital U20 attack 1.00 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.11 + Clube Vital U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Clube Vital U20 scores more
36%
level
24%
Osasco Audax U20 scores more
40%

Osasco Audax U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Osasco Audax U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
M. Lima
52'
L. Amorim
66'
G. Santos
66'
J. Conceicao
76'
M. Cruz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clube Vital U20 1 – 2 Osasco Audax U20

Osasco Audax U20 beat Clube Vital U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Lima (23'), L. Amorim (52'), M. Cruz (76').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Eduardo Camargo Truvilho in Ibiúna, São Paulo.