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Club Universitario vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2019

Club Universitario
Club Universitario
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
8/14/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Universitario48%
×Draw25%
Universitario de Vinto27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Universitario
1.54
Universitario de Vinto
1.09

Club Universitario creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

creates per match

Club Universitario
1.45
Universitario de Vinto
0.82

allows per match

Club Universitario
1.36
Universitario de Vinto
1.64

finishing

Club Universitario+0.00on par
Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Universitario ↓

Universitario de Vinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Club Universitario or draw
73%
Club Universitario or Universitario de Vinto
75%
Draw or Universitario de Vinto
52%

Winning margin

Club Universitario wins by 2+
24%
Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Club Universitario 1+ goals
79%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
45%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
20%
Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
66%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
30%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Club Universitario (draw refunded)
64%
Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Universitario at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Universitario attack 1.45 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.82 + Club Universitario defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Universitario scores more
48%
level
25%
Universitario de Vinto scores more
27%

Club Universitario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Universitario vs Universitario de Vinto

Club Universitario beat Universitario de Vinto 2-1 in Primera División on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.