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Club Universitario vs Bolívar — Primera División 2019

Club Universitario
Club Universitario
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Bolívar
Bolívar
8/31/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Universitario32%
×Draw24%
Bolívar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Universitario
1.39
Bolívar
1.69

Bolívar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 135 away

creates per match

Club Universitario
1.45
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Club Universitario
1.36
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

Club Universitario+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Universitario ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Club Universitario or draw
55%
Club Universitario or Bolívar
76%
Draw or Bolívar
68%

Winning margin

Club Universitario wins by 2+
14%
Bolívar wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Club Universitario 1+ goals
75%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
40%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
16%
Bolívar 1+ goals
82%
Bolívar 2+ goals
50%
Bolívar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Club Universitario (draw refunded)
42%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Universitario at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Universitario attack 1.45 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Club Universitario defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Universitario scores more
32%
level
24%
Bolívar scores more
45%

Bolívar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Club Universitario 2–3 Bolívar

Bolívar beat Club Universitario 3-2 in Primera División on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.