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Club Tijuana vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
Preview
03:00
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
8/29/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Caliente
Big match
39%
Club Tijuana
model favours
39%27%34%

Club Tijuana are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Club Tijuana39%
×Draw27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.34
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.44
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.16
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.24

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.31scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
66%
Club Tijuana or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
73%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
61%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
74%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
39%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
15%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
71%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
35%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
54%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
39%
level
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
34%

Club Tijuana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Club Tijuana score first in only 24% of matches
  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 31% of Club Tijuana’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Club Tijuana
Balanced
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
48%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy82%
11.2Shots12.4
1.16xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Club TijuanaU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Club Tijuana
4
Draws
4
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 70%
1–11–44–20–13–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tijuana
WDWDW
Pumas
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Club Tijuana host U.N.A.M. - Pumas

August 29, 2026: Club Tijuana take on U.N.A.M. - Pumas in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Club Tijuana host U.N.A.M. - Pumas at Estadio Caliente.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.