Club Tijuana 0–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Club Tijuana

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1/28/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Club Tijuana39%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Club Tijuana

1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.44

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.44

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.16

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

66%

Club Tijuana or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

61%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

72%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

37%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

14%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

33%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

53%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

39%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

34%

Club Tijuana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

S. Sosa

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · G

8.2

Match Events

5'

15'

17'

40'

44'

46'

A. Martínez← E. Armenta

46'

S. Trigos← G. del Prete

46'

P. Bennevendo← R. Galindo

61'

J. Montecinos← F. Valenzuela

61'

K. Castañeda← L. Rodríguez

78'

DiogoPenalty cancelled

82'

Juan Dinenno

87'

F. Contreras← J. Díaz

87'

U. Rivas← Diogo de Oliveira

90+7'

Kevin CastañedaPenalty cancelled

90+9'

J. Caicedo← A. Álvarez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubU.N.A.M.

Overview

66%Possession34%

22Total Shots4

12Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots4

6On Target2

7Off Target1

9Blocked1

15Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

524Total Passes281

421Accurate Passes168

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0