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Club Tijuana vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1/9/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Club Tijuana39%
×Draw27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
1.29
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.44
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.21

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.16
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.14

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
66%
Club Tijuana or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
73%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
61%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
17%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
72%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
37%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
14%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
70%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
33%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
53%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
39%
level
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
34%

Club Tijuana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. OrozcoClub TijuanaClub Tijuana · G
8.9

Match Events

61'
F. Martínez← M. Sansores
66'
J. Iturbe← Amaury García
71'
J. Cortizo← E. Pavez
77'
E. López← F. Castillo
87'
Jordi Cortizo
87'
Ángel García← C. Gutiérrez
90'
Brayan Angulo

Possession

61%Club

Shots

11Club

Pass accuracy

54%Club

Statistics

ClubU.N.A.M.
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots18
5Corners7
18Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots18
3On Target8
7Off Target6
1Blocked4
9Inside Box9
2Outside Box9
Passing
61%Possession39%
472Total Passes288
389Accurate Passes204
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Club Tijuana vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Club Tijuana and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 0-0 in Liga MX on January 9, 2021.

Club Tijuana controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.