Club Tijuana 2–0 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Club Tijuana

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tigres UANL

11/2/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Tijuana38%

×Draw28%

Tigres UANL33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

Club Tijuana

1.21

Tigres UANL

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.44

Tigres UANL

1.07

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.16

Tigres UANL

0.99

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more

Tigres UANL+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

67%

Club Tijuana or Tigres UANL

72%

Draw or Tigres UANL

62%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

16%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

70%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

34%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

12%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

67%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

30%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

53%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + Tigres UANL defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tigres UANL attack 1.07 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

38%

level

28%

Tigres UANL scores more

33%

Club Tijuana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff