Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna: Preview & Prediction

Club Tijuana

Preview

03:00

Santos Laguna

10/26/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Caliente

Big match

43%

Club Tijuana

model favours

43%23%34%

Club Tijuana are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

63%

over 2.5 goals

64%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Tijuana43%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.51

Club Tijuana

1.72

Santos Laguna

1.51

Club Tijuana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.86

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.44

Santos Laguna

1.86

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.16

Santos Laguna

2.00

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more

Santos Laguna-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

66%

Club Tijuana or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

57%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

22%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

82%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

51%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

25%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

78%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

44%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

56%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + Santos Laguna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Santos Laguna attack 1.86 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

43%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

34%

Club Tijuana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Club Tijuana score first in only 24% of matches
Santos Laguna raise their game against the top half — 35% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower
Santos Laguna fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)
31% of Club Tijuana’s goals come after the 75th minute