Club Tijuana 0–2 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club Tijuana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Santos Laguna

J. Correa 78'

J. Brunetta 56'

8/26/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Tijuana45%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.39

Club Tijuana

1.69

Santos Laguna

1.39

Club Tijuana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

1.61

1.16

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.44

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.16

Santos Laguna

1.95

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

68%

Club Tijuana or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

55%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

23%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

82%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

50%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

24%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

75%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

40%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

58%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

45%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

32%

Club Tijuana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Correa

Santos Laguna · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

Kevin Castañeda

18'

L. Suárez← J. González

38'

Fernando Gorriarán

56'

J. Brunetta↳ L. Suárez

62'

R. Ibarra← J. Montecinos

62'

F. Castillo← A. Canelo

62'

F. Contreras← K. Castañeda

65'

Nicolás Díaz

65'

Nicolás DíazCard upgrade

68'

F. Di Santo← E. López

70'

Alan Cervantes

73'

Juan Brunetta

74'

J. Correa← J. Brunetta

74'

C. Domínguez← E. Aguirre

78'

J. Correa↳ H. Preciado

80'

Federico Lértora

83'

José Juan VázquezPenalty cancelled

86'

A. López← H. Preciado

86'

R. Prieto← O. Campos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSantos

Overview

54%Possession46%

24Total Shots21

7Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots21

4On Target7

10Off Target10

10Blocked4

12Inside Box6

12Outside Box15

Passing

54%Possession46%

448Total Passes390

354Accurate Passes298

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

Liga MX: Club Tijuana 0–2 Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna beat Club Tijuana 2-0 in Liga MX on August 26, 2022.

Goals: J. Brunetta (56'), J. Correa (78').

Club Tijuana controlled possession (54%) and registered 24 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.

Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Club Tijuana 0–2 Santos Laguna