Club Tijuana 2–1 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club Tijuana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santos Laguna

M. Laínez 52'

Camilo Sanvezzo 37' (pen)

Dória 50'

1/11/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Tijuana45%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.39

Club Tijuana

1.69

Santos Laguna

1.39

Club Tijuana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

1.61

1.16

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.44

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.16

Santos Laguna

1.95

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.44scores more

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

68%

Club Tijuana or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

55%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

23%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

82%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

50%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

24%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

75%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

40%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

58%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.44 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Club Tijuana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

45%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

32%

Club Tijuana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Valdés

Santos Laguna · F

7.9

Match Events

36'

Fernando Gorriarán

37'

Camilo SanvezzoPenalty

43'

Julio Furch

50'

Dória

52'

M. Laínez

60'

C. Rivera← C. Falletti

68'

O. Rivero← U. Rivas

70'

Brian Lozano

84'

M. Barbieri← M. Laínez

84'

A. Preciado← J. Van Rankin

89'

Diego Valdés

89'

E. Torres← Camilo Sanvezzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSantos

Overview

42%Possession58%

4Total Shots15

2Corners4

20Fouls14

Shots

4Total Shots15

3On Target5

1Off Target7

0Blocked3

2Inside Box5

2Outside Box10

Passing

42%Possession58%

309Total Passes408

213Accurate Passes322

69%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

5Offsides0