Club Tijuana 2–0 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Tijuana

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Monarcas

D. Moreno 56', 45+2' (pen)

7/16/2016

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Club Tijuana45%

×Draw25%

Monarcas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

Club Tijuana

1.56

Monarcas

1.21

Club Tijuana creates 29% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 50 away

1.56

creates per match

1.28

1.15

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.56

Monarcas

1.28

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.15

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

70%

Club Tijuana or Monarcas

75%

Draw or Monarcas

55%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

23%

Monarcas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

79%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

46%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

21%

Monarcas 1+ goals

70%

Monarcas 2+ goals

34%

Monarcas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

61%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 140 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.56 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Monarcas attack 1.28 + Club Tijuana defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

45%

level

25%

Monarcas scores more

30%

Club Tijuana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Valenzuela

Club Tijuana · D

8.0

Match Events

28'

Gabriel Hauche← A. Hurtado

41'

Guido Rodríguez

45'

Facundo Erpen

45+2'

D. MorenoPenalty

46'

R. Ruidíaz← D. Valdés

56'

R. Millar← L. Rey

56'

D. Moreno

63'

A. Gagliardi← J. Cuero

65'

Rodrigo Millar

69'

D. Pérez← G. Garza

75'

Juan Carlos Nunez

77'

Y. Corona← G. Rodríguez

90'

Hugo Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMonarcas

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots10

5Corners5

15Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target4

7Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

383Total Passes492

296Accurate Passes403

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0