Club Tijuana 1–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Tijuana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mazatlán

K. Castañeda 5'

9/28/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Club Tijuana51%

×Draw24%

Mazatlán25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.09

Club Tijuana

1.66

Mazatlán

1.09

Club Tijuana creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.48

creates per match

1.01

1.17

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.48

Mazatlán

1.01

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.17

Mazatlán

1.83

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.27scores more

Mazatlán-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

75%

Club Tijuana or Mazatlán

76%

Draw or Mazatlán

49%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

27%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

81%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

49%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

23%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

66%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

30%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

67%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.83 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.48 + Mazatlán defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mazatlán attack 1.01 + Club Tijuana defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

51%

level

24%

Mazatlán scores more

25%

Club Tijuana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Unai Bilbao

Club Tijuana · D

8.3

Match Events

5'

K. Castañeda↳ E. Reynoso

23'

A. Mejía← R. Fernández

36'

D. Blanco← C. González

45'

R. Pizarro← R. Franco

45'

W. Vargas← A. Escoboza

46'

F. Contreras← K. Castañeda

46'

R. Zúñiga← E. Reynoso

46'

J. Álvarez← Efraín Álvarez

46'

R. Gutiérrez← H. González

74'

74'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMazatlán

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots9

3Corners7

20Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

7On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked1

11Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

666Total Passes336

566Accurate Passes239

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2