Club Tijuana 1–2 FC Juarez: Result & Stats

Club Tijuana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Juarez

R. Zúñiga 2'

Á. Zaldívar 90+3'

Guilherme Castilho 21'

2/15/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Club Tijuana48%

×Draw24%

FC Juarez28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.19

Club Tijuana

1.64

FC Juarez

1.19

Club Tijuana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.48

creates per match

1.21

1.17

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.48

FC Juarez

1.21

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.17

FC Juarez

1.80

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.27scores more

FC Juarez-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

72%

Club Tijuana or FC Juarez

76%

Draw or FC Juarez

52%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

25%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

81%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

49%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

23%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

70%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

33%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

63%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.80 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.48 + FC Juarez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC Juarez attack 1.21 + Club Tijuana defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

48%

level

24%

FC Juarez scores more

28%

Club Tijuana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Efraín Álvarez

Club Tijuana · F

7.7

Match Events

2'

R. Zúñiga↳ Efraín Álvarez

21'

Guilherme Castilho↳ D. Villalpando

39'

Raúl ZúñigaGoal cancelled

62'

Jesús Gómez

66'

R. Franco← A. Gómez

66'

K. Castañeda← S. Nicholson

67'

J. Álvarez← Madson

77'

Á. Zaldívar← Ó. Estupiñán

77'

S. Abdullahi← D. Villalpando

81'

F. Madrigal← I. Tona

82'

R. Árciga← D. Blanco

86'

Ramiro Árciga

90+5'

Saminu Kwari Abdullahi

90'

J. Gónzalez← Guilherme Castilho

90+3'

Á. Zaldívar↳ S. Abdullahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubFC

Overview

63%Possession37%

21Total Shots13

5Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots13

7On Target5

9Off Target4

5Blocked4

12Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

560Total Passes325

485Accurate Passes236

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1