Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3–0 Sportivo Trinidense

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sportivo Trinidense

J. Quintana 54', 42'

J. Villamayor 48'

7/4/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo45%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Trinidense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Sp. San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.48

Sportivo Trinidense

1.13

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

1.64

creates per match

1.34

0.91

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.64

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.91

Sportivo Trinidense

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw

71%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Sportivo Trinidense

74%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

55%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

22%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

77%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

43%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

19%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

68%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

31%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

61%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

45%

level

26%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

C. Candia

42'

J. Quintana

48'

J. Villamayor

54'

J. Quintana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff