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Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs General Diaz — Division Intermedia 2018

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
FT
1 – 0
General Diaz
General Diaz
4/29/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo59%
×Draw24%
General Diaz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.67
General Diaz
0.75

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 123% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.64
General Diaz
0.59

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.91
General Diaz
1.71

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par
General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

General Diaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw
83%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or General Diaz
76%
Draw or General Diaz
41%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
33%
General Diaz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
81%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
50%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
23%
General Diaz 1+ goals
53%
General Diaz 2+ goals
17%
General Diaz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
78%
General Diaz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

General Diaz away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + General Diaz defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

General Diaz attack 0.59 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
59%
level
24%
General Diaz scores more
17%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 General Diaz

Club Sp. San Lorenzo beat General Diaz 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Gunther Vogel in San Lorenzo.