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Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
FT
5 – 1
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
4/20/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio Gunther Vogel (San Lorenzo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo60%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Caaguazu17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.78
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.82

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 117% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 30 away

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.64
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.91
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw
83%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Deportivo Caaguazu
77%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
40%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
34%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
83%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
53%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
78%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
60%
level
23%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
17%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Caaguazu

Club Sp. San Lorenzo beat Deportivo Caaguazu 5-1 in Division Intermedia on April 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Gunther Vogel (San Lorenzo).