Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Club Guarani — Division Profesional - Apertura 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo25%
Club Guarani47%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Club Guarani creates 49% more chances
Season form · 22 home / 75 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches
Club Guarani away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 0.82 + Club Guarani defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91
Club Guarani attack 1.41 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Club Guarani at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Cerro Porteno
Olimpia
Libertad AsuncionClub Guarani
Club River Plate
Guairena FC
Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno
12 de Octubre
SOL DE AmericaClub Sp. San Lorenzo
General DiazIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Club Sp. San Lorenzo host Club Guarani on Sunday, 9 August 2020 at 22:30. The match is part of the Division Profesional - Apertura 2020/2021 season.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1 – 1 Club Guarani
Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Club Guarani drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on August 9, 2020.
Goals: A. Cáceres (23' pen), R. Bobadilla (90+2').
The match was played at Estadio Gunther Vogel in San Lorenzo.