Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3–0 Atlético Colegiales

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Colegiales

9/30/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo58%

×Draw23%

Atlético Colegiales19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Sp. San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Colegiales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.95

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.84

Atlético Colegiales

0.95

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 44 away

1.64

creates per match

0.98

0.91

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.64

Atlético Colegiales

0.98

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.91

Atlético Colegiales

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Atlético Colegiales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw

81%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Atlético Colegiales

77%

Draw or Atlético Colegiales

42%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

34%

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

84%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

55%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

28%

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

25%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

75%

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.84

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

58%

level

23%

Atlético Colegiales scores more

19%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff