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Club Sando vs Police — League #591 2026

Club Sando
Club Sando
FT
0 – 1
Police
Police
2/9/2025League #591League #591 · Round 10Ken Cooke Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Club Sando26%
×Draw23%
Police51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Sando
1.27
Police
1.86

Police creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Club Sando
1.55
Police
2.00

allows per match

Club Sando
1.73
Police
1.00

finishing

Club Sando+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sando ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Club Sando or draw
49%
Club Sando or Police
77%
Draw or Police
74%

Winning margin

Club Sando wins by 2+
11%
Police wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Club Sando 1+ goals
72%
Club Sando 2+ goals
36%
Club Sando 3+ goals
14%
Police 1+ goals
84%
Police 2+ goals
55%
Police 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Club Sando (draw refunded)
34%
Police (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sando at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Police away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sando attack 1.55 + Police defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Police attack 2.00 + Club Sando defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club Sando scores more
26%
level
23%
Police scores more
51%

Police at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #591: Club Sando 0–1 Police

Police beat Club Sando 1-0 in League #591 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Ken Cooke Ground in Port of Spain.