Club River Plate 0–4 Sportivo Trinidense

Club River Plate

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sportivo Trinidense

4/11/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 2Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Club River Plate38%

×Draw27%

Sportivo Trinidense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club River PlateExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.23

Club River Plate

1.28

Sportivo Trinidense

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

1.24

creates per match

1.34

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Club River Plate

1.24

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

allows per match

Club River Plate

1.11

Sportivo Trinidense

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw

65%

Club River Plate or Sportivo Trinidense

73%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

62%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+

17%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals

72%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

37%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

14%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

71%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

35%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

52%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Club River Plate scores more

38%

level

27%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

35%

Club River Plate at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club River Plate 0–4 Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Trinidense beat Club River Plate 4-0 in Division Intermedia on April 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio River Plate in Asunción.

Club River Plate vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Intermedia 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Division Intermedia: Club River Plate 0–4 Sportivo Trinidense