Club River Plate 1–0 SOL DE America: Result & Stats

Club River Plate

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SOL DE America

2/5/2019

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 4Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Club River Plate41%

×Draw25%

SOL DE America34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club River PlateExpected goals in this matchSOL DE America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.36

Club River Plate

1.52

SOL DE America

1.36

Club River Plate creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

1.13

creates per match

1.20

1.52

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Club River Plate

1.13

SOL DE America

1.20

allows per match

Club River Plate

1.52

SOL DE America

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par

SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

SOL DE America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw

66%

Club River Plate or SOL DE America

75%

Draw or SOL DE America

59%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+

20%

SOL DE America wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals

78%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

45%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

20%

SOL DE America 1+ goals

74%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

39%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

55%

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.13 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Club River Plate defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Club River Plate scores more

41%

level

25%

SOL DE America scores more

34%

Club River Plate at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff