Club River Plate 1–1 Nacional Asuncion

Club River Plate

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional Asuncion

7/21/2020

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Club River Plate33%

×Draw27%

Nacional Asuncion40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club River PlateExpected goals in this matchNacional Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.32

Club River Plate

1.19

Nacional Asuncion

1.32

Nacional Asuncion creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 98 away

1.13

creates per match

1.13

1.52

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Club River Plate

1.13

Nacional Asuncion

1.13

allows per match

Club River Plate

1.52

Nacional Asuncion

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Nacional Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw

60%

Club River Plate or Nacional Asuncion

73%

Draw or Nacional Asuncion

67%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+

14%

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals

70%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

33%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

12%

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

73%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

38%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

46%

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.13 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.13 + Club River Plate defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club River Plate scores more

33%

level

27%

Nacional Asuncion scores more

40%

Nacional Asuncion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff