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Club River Plate vs Guairena FC — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Club River Plate
Club River Plate
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
3/5/2021Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Club River Plate35%
×Draw27%
Guairena FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club River Plate
1.21
Guairena FC
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 42 away

creates per match

Club River Plate
1.13
Guairena FC
1.07

allows per match

Club River Plate
1.52
Guairena FC
1.29

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw
62%
Club River Plate or Guairena FC
73%
Draw or Guairena FC
65%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+
15%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals
70%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
34%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
12%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
72%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
37%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)
47%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.13 + Guairena FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guairena FC attack 1.07 + Club River Plate defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Club River Plate scores more
35%
level
27%
Guairena FC scores more
38%

Guairena FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Club River Plate 0–1 Guairena FC

Guairena FC beat Club River Plate 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio River Plate in Asunción.