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Club River Plate vs Guairena FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Club River Plate
Club River Plate
FT
3 – 1
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
4/21/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Club River Plate38%
×Draw29%
Guairena FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club River Plate
1.16
Guairena FC
1.04

Club River Plate creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 66 away

creates per match

Club River Plate
1.24
Guairena FC
0.98

allows per match

Club River Plate
1.11
Guairena FC
1.08

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw
68%
Club River Plate or Guairena FC
71%
Draw or Guairena FC
62%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+
16%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals
69%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
32%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
11%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
65%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
28%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)
54%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + Guairena FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Club River Plate scores more
38%
level
29%
Guairena FC scores more
32%

Club River Plate at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club River Plate vs Guairena FC

Club River Plate beat Guairena FC 3-1 in Division Intermedia on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio River Plate (Asunción).