Club River Plate 1–0 Deportivo Capiata

Club River Plate

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Capiata

4/27/2019

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 18Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club River Plate45%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Capiata29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club River PlateExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Capiata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Club River Plate

1.54

Deportivo Capiata

1.19

Club River Plate creates 29% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

1.52

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Club River Plate

1.13

Deportivo Capiata

0.86

allows per match

Club River Plate

1.52

Deportivo Capiata

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Deportivo Capiata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw

71%

Club River Plate or Deportivo Capiata

75%

Draw or Deportivo Capiata

55%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals

79%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

45%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.13 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.86 + Club River Plate defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club River Plate scores more

45%

level

25%

Deportivo Capiata scores more

29%

Club River Plate at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff