Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Club River Plate vs 12 de Junio VH — Division Intermedia 2018

Club River Plate
Club River Plate
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
12 de Junio VH
12 de Junio VH
8/19/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Club River Plate33%
×Draw29%
12 de Junio VH38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club River Plate
1.04
12 de Junio VH
1.14

12 de Junio VH creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

creates per match

Club River Plate
1.24
12 de Junio VH
1.16

allows per match

Club River Plate
1.11
12 de Junio VH
0.84

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par
12 de Junio VH+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

12 de Junio VH →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw
62%
Club River Plate or 12 de Junio VH
71%
Draw or 12 de Junio VH
67%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+
13%
12 de Junio VH wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals
65%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
28%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
9%
12 de Junio VH 1+ goals
68%
12 de Junio VH 2+ goals
32%
12 de Junio VH 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)
46%
12 de Junio VH (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

12 de Junio VH away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + 12 de Junio VH defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

12 de Junio VH attack 1.16 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Club River Plate scores more
33%
level
29%
12 de Junio VH scores more
38%

12 de Junio VH at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "12 de Junio VH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Club River Plate 2–1 12 de Junio VH

Club River Plate beat 12 de Junio VH 2-1 in Division Intermedia on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio River Plate.